Models Everywhere

Various considerations about Model Driven Engineering

Interpreting technology adoption curves

Posted by jbezivin on December 20, 2010

Interpreting technology adoption curves

Following the current Google Ngramming fashionable trend, I started to look at the evolution of references to some technological buzzwords. I started by drawing the comparative curves for « object oriented » and « model driven ». The result was quite interesting:
There are many interpretations of this curve.  I propose the following ones:
  1. Object technology is now mainstream and thus explicit references are decreasing. Object technology started in 1980 and had an initial development until 1985, and then a much more rapid one until 1995, followed by a slower decrease.
  2. Model driven engineering is gaining momentum since 1996 and steadily increasing its apparent impact.
  3. The development rate of object technology between 1985 and 1995 was much more rapid (steep curve) than the later development of model driven engineering in the 1996 to 2006 decade.
  4. So the two phenomenon are not comparable. Probably this is due to the fact that there were some obvious killer applications in object technology that triggered the rapid development just before 1985, while this is  not so obvious with model driven engineering.
I am interested by any other observation.
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3 Responses to “Interpreting technology adoption curves”

  1. Dear Jean,
    If this is the registered trend up to 2007, I think that if the graph had covered the last 2-3 years (up to 2010-11) we could have witnessed a big ramp in MDE discussion (much steeper than before).
    I have the sensation that in industry MD* has become interesting only in the last year or so… (for instance, because it’s being widely associated with Business Process Management, BPM, and other practices, see BPM history picture: http://marcobrambi.blogspot.com/2010/10/bpm-history-in-one-picture.html).
    What do you think?
    Marco

  2. [...] Interpreting technology adoption curves [...]

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