Interpreting technology adoption curves
Following the current Google Ngramming fashionable trend, I started to look at the evolution of references to some technological buzzwords. I started by drawing the comparative curves for « object oriented » and « model driven ». The result was quite interesting:
There are many interpretations of this curve. I propose the following ones:
- Object technology is now mainstream and thus explicit references are decreasing. Object technology started in 1980 and had an initial development until 1985, and then a much more rapid one until 1995, followed by a slower decrease.
- Model driven engineering is gaining momentum since 1996 and steadily increasing its apparent impact.
- The development rate of object technology between 1985 and 1995 was much more rapid (steep curve) than the later development of model driven engineering in the 1996 to 2006 decade.
- So the two phenomenon are not comparable. Probably this is due to the fact that there were some obvious killer applications in object technology that triggered the rapid development just before 1985, while this is not so obvious with model driven engineering.
I am interested by any other observation.